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Forever Frozen? Permafrost in the Arctic

Logo https://permarisk.pageflow.io/forever-frozen-permafrost-in-the-arctic

Permafrost in der Arktis

Hidden beneath the vast arctic tundra and boreal forests of the North lies  permafrost - frozen soil. The cold climate in Alaska, Siberia and Canada freezes the soil permanently. Only the topmost layer of the soil thaws for a bit during summer.

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The polar climate is hard with its low temperatures, its long and dark winters, very short summers and frozen soils. And yet, both humans and a great variety of plants and animals have adapted to these harsh conditions.

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Humans have settled in the Arctic thousands of years ago. Today, 4 million people live in Alaska, Canada and Siberia. The region is also of global importance - for international trade, as a source of natural resources and for the global climate.
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The big thaw

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The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet. Glaciers and ice shields are melting, sea ice and snow are diminishing in winter and permafrost is thawing. When permafrost thaws, the ice in the soil melts and the soil starts to move. At the Arctic coasts, for example, large pieces of land break off and slide into the ocean.

Scientists investigate the permafrost thaw and have many questions: How deep and how fast does the permafrost thaw? Does the rate and extent of thaw differ in different places, and why? What are the consequences for the Arctic ecosystem, for plants and animals? How does this affect the people in the Arctic?
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Moritz Langer has been researching permafrost for over 10 years. Totgether with his team PermaRisk, Moritz is currently developing a computer model to forecast the changes in permafrost and the risks of thawing permafrost for Arctic landscapes, infrastructure and people.
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Moritz Langer, Ph.D.

Reserach director, PermaRisk

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Permafrost stores massive amounts of ice. The ice can be finely distributed in the pores of the soil or appear as huge blocks of ice that have grown over centuries to their size today.
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Buildings, streets, pipelines, power lines - a lot of infrastructure is built on permafrost in the Arctic. The frozen soil is solid as cement. But what happens when the permafrost thaws?



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Dr. Moritz Langer

Research director, PermaRisk

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A permafrost model

The satellite image shows a landscape in Canada. Dark areas are lakes and rivers. The overlain grid has a resolution of  10 kilometers which means that every grid cell is 10 by 10 kilometers in size.
The satellite image shows a landscape in Canada. Dark areas are lakes and rivers. The overlain grid has a resolution of 10 kilometers which means that every grid cell is 10 by 10 kilometers in size.
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Models are computer simulations that rebuild the real world with physical equations. Computers can then calculate the speed or rate of processes like the thawing of permafrost. The Arctic is divided into a coarse grid. The smaller the grid’s cell size the more detailed the model and the more computing power is needed do the calculations. A model that covers the whole Arctic must therefore not be too complicated. Instead, the model has to simplify the reality.

In the PermaRisk model CryoGrid,  for example, the region of Alaska is divided in a grid with cell sizes of about 20 by 20 kilometers. Parts of the Arctic landscape that are smaller than 20 kilometers are not captured in this grid. This could be streets, small lakes or forest patches. But those small elements are important. For example, large regions of the Arctic are covered with lakes of all sizes. The exchange of heat between water and air is different than between soil and air. If the lakes are not taken into account in the model, the model calculations will be wrong.

The PermaRisk scientists calculate the probability of how often small objects like lakes, forest or snow patches, streets or railways appear in the landscape and how they are distributed. This concept is called topology - the relationship of objects in space. This way the scientists can rebuild the permafrost landscapes in detail using only a few mathematical equations. The probability distributions are then linked to the grid cells of the computer model. The result is the model CryoGrid - an improved permafrost model that allows the scientists to look into the future. What happens with the permafrost in the Arctic under a warming climate?
The satellite image shows a landscape in Canada. Dark areas are lakes and rivers. The overlain grid has a resolution of  10 kilometers which means that every grid cell is 10 by 10 kilometers in size.
The satellite image shows a landscape in Canada. Dark areas are lakes and rivers. The overlain grid has a resolution of 10 kilometers which means that every grid cell is 10 by 10 kilometers in size.
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The PermaRisk research project needs data from the Arctic like air and soil temperatures or thaw depths to calibrate and test the model. To get these data the scientists go on expeditions to Siberia, Alaska and Canada. The next slide shows a map of permafrost in the Arctic. Click on the polar bear to learn more about Arctic permafrost!
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Where is permafrost?

About a quarter of the soil in the Northern hemisphere is frozen. The dark blue areas on the map show the continuous permafrost. More than 90 percent of these areas have frozen ground. Continuous permafrost can reach depths of several hundred meters, for example in Siberia. The lighter blue areas mark the discontinuous permafrost. Here, permafrost is not everywhere and sometimes only a few meters deep. Towards the South the permafrost gets warmer and warmer until there is no permafrost anymore.

Traveling in Alaska

Click here to accompany the PermaRisk team on an expedition along the Dalton Highway in Alaska!

Welcome in Churchill!

In Northern Canada, on the border between the Arctic and the Subarctic, lies Churchill. About 900 people live in this small town on the threshold between land and ocean, tundra and boreal forest, civilisation and wilderness. What happens to the railway, streets and buildings in Churchill when the permafrost thaws? You can learn more about life and permafrost research in Churchill in our other stories.

Extreme Siberia

Permafrost in Siberia can be up to 1.400 meters deep and may consist of more than 70 percent ice. Click here and have a closer look!

Submarine permafrost

Submarine permafrost is a special form of permafrost in the shelf sea of the Arctic Ocean. The permafrost developed during the last glacial period when the shelf was dry. The the sea level then rose and the permafrost persisted due to the low water temperatures. More than 80 percent of the submarine permafrost in the Arctic are located along the East Siberian coast. The submarine permafrost contains carbon in the form of gas and gas hydrates. When the submarine permafrost thaws, the gases are released into the atmosphere and could amplify the warming of the climate.

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Permafrost in the Arctic - forever frozen?
A project of the research group PermaRisk

The project was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education.


Scenario, production and postproduction: denkbargruen and dsein
Design: dsein

Photo and Video:
Permafrost in the Arctic
Page 1, 10 - PermaRisk
Page 2, 3, 5, 6, 11, 14 - Sina Muster
Page 4, 7 - Boris Radosavljevic CC BY-SA 2.0
Page 9 - Thomas Opel, Hugues Lantuit
Page 10 - Thomas Schneider von Deimling
Page 12 - IPA, 1998

Photo and Video:
Traveling in Alaska
Page 1 - Gretarsson, CC 2.0
Page 2 - Stephan Jacobi
Page 3, 4 - Thomas Schneider von Deimling

Sources:https://www.weltderphysik.de/gebiet/erde/atmosphaere/klimaforschung/permafrost/

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Unterwegs in Alaska

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The camper drives carefully along the Dalton Highway. This gravel road takes the PermaRisk team over 800 Kilometers through permafrost landscapes - from Fairbanks in Central Alaska to the Arctic Ocean in the North.
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There is a lot to discover on this journey: different permafrost landscapes from boreal forest in Central Alaska, the mountains of the Brooks Range and the treeless tundra on the North Slope. The scientists stop regularly along the way to map the terrain and its lakes, to put out temperature sensors and to take soil samples.
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Parallel to the road runs the Trans-Alaska-Pipeline above ground and transports mineral oil from Prudhoe Bay in the North to the port of Valdez in the Prince William Sound in the South of Alaska. The pipeline is built on poles that are drilled deep into the permafrost.
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The PermaRisk team uses the data from Alaska to test its permafrost model. With the computer model, the scientists are able to calculate how permafrost thaws under a street or along an oil pipeline. You can learn more about the model in our story The Permafrost Risk.
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Siberia features the largest continuous area of permafrost in the Arctic. During the last glacial period, Siberia was not covered by ice sheets. The ice sheets protect the soil from the freezing air temperature as was the case in Northern Europe and North America. This insulation was missing in Siberia and the ground was exposed to the cold so that massive layers of permafrost formed.
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Over thousands of years the remains of animals and plants were frozen in the permafrost. They slowly decomposed to organic material. This is why we find thick layers of peat in the Arctic soils. Scientists estimate that permafrost contains about 1.300 to 1.600 gigatonnes of carbon. This is about double the amount of carbon that is present in the atmosphere.
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When deep layers of permafrost thaw, the frozen organic material in the soil becomes available to microorganisms. These organisms transform the organic material into the greenhouse gases methane and carbon dioxide. In case the gases reach the air, they amplify the warming of the atmosphere.
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